🏀🧠 NBA Preview : Contender or Pretender?
2024-2025 NBA Preview; Contention Tier List
Summer 2024 transformed the scenery for multiple teams through free agency, the draft, and trades. Here’s what we see as the current hierarchy of the NBA and it’s tier list for the contenders, middle of the pack teams, and pretenders.
Tier 1: Contenders
OKC Thunder: The team with the best regular season record last year has had one of the best off seasons in my opinion. SGA is MVP caliber, and he is surrounded with youthful talent at every spot, relentless defenders, and one of the best crowds in the NBA. Adding Alex Caruso, and Isaiah Hartenstein might just be the two most impactful additions of the offseason. Both bring a lot to the table. Hartenstein had a masterful offensive performance for his role against the 76ers last year when matched up against Embiid. Caruso is a serious defender, with the ability to score the ball, and also brings a long his experience for this young lineup. I expect them to stay a top of the West along with Denver and some other contenders.
Boston Celtics : This one is a no brainer. Expect the Boston Celtics to be right back up there on top of the east contending for that #1 or #2 seed if the squad stays healthy. Although they’ve lost a huge piece in veteran Al Horford, I think we can see Tatum and Brown lead the way to another successful season, with potential for a 2-peat.
Boston has garnered the additions of Lonnie Walker who we may see as a nice bench contribution who brings tons of athleticism at the guard spots. Boston has also extended Derrick White and Jayson Tatum.
Denver Nuggets: Although Denver fell short in last years playoff campaign, losing to the Mavericks in the 2nd round, I’m expecting a revenge season from the Nuggets. They bring a lot of big time players like Jokic, Murray, MPJ, Gordon, and have signed veteran former MVP Russell Westbrook along with a valuable role player in Dario Saric, who I think will both fit well playing off of Jokic and Murray along with other personnel that can spread the floor. I predict Denver to be a #1 or #2 seed in the west.
New York Knicks : The Knicks burst on to the scene with their grit and and traditional Thibs style of play which means a lot of physicality, offensive rebounding, and extended minutes for starters. I think with the massive additions this offseason of Mikal Bridges and Cam Payne, the Knicks have not only completed their defensive unit, but also added a veteran back up PG who brings intensity and gamer-mentality to the squad. I expect another great year for Jalen Brunson, with a potential MVP run, to lead the Knicks to a #2 or #3 seed in the East.
Their only down spot as of right now, is missing Hartenstein, who played phenomenal in the early playoffs round, contributing highly to their win over the 76ers. I think they are the best team when matching up 1-4, the question is, can they lock down the high level bigs from the 76ers in Joel Embiid, and the Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Minnesota Timberwolves : The Timberwolves may be one of the best overall teams in the league, and should compete for a #1 or #2 seed. I expect Anthony Edwards to take another step forward in his development after gaining valuable playoff experience last year, and being with Team USA this summer. KAT and Gobert are a two headed monster at the 4 and 5 spots and should continue to contribute massively on the defensive end. The Wolves didn’t lose much, but also didn’t gain much this offseason. Expect them to make some moves at some point in the season to bolster their PG depth after losing Kyle Anderson, and brining back an older Mike Conley.
Philadelphia 76ers : ECF or bust! Philly has not been able to get over that hump that is the second round since the 76ers dramatically exited the ECF on Kawhi Leonards buzzer beating shot in Toronto back in 2019. One of Phillies issues is health, the changing of the helm of Head Coaches, and a constantly evolving roster with major moves happening each year. Any sort of consistency has been hard to develop in Philly with their “Trial and Error” type approach, but this year looks a little different. Morey and company have assembled what I believe to be their best roster alignment during the Joel Embiid era. But will it be enough? They’ve lost a lot of players to free agency, but brought in a powerful lineup of players including Paul George, Caleb Martin, Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson, Eric Gordon, and Guerschon Yabusele.
The biggest question mark is Joel Embiid’s health. Can he make it to April and May without any major injuries? Will he HAVE to play 45+ minutes against low tier teams all season? Or can they reserve him more properly throughout the year with their new star power? With a fully healthy squad, I would expect Philly to be in a tight race for a #2 or #3 Seed in the East.
Dallas Mavericks : Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving is the pairing we didn’t know we needed. In terms of their style of play; “Same, but different”. These two all-star caliber players shocked the West in their dismantling of the #1 seed Thunder, and then the #3 seed Timberwolves in their quest for a finals championship. Dallas established an identity with a more spread offense than previous years due to the addition of Kyrie Irving two seasons ago which helps take the load off of Luka Doncic at times. Key role players made a name for themselves with DJJ, Lively, and more.
Although Dallas will miss DJJ, they have acquired a solid group of players in Klay Thompson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Quentin Grimes, and Naji Marshall. This definitely improves their already phenomenal shooting, and adds to their defensive presence on the wings. I can expect another fantastic run by Dallas and company this year.
Milwaukee Bucks : The Bucks have been somewhat consistent maintaining their stay in the top half of the East in recent years. They bring back their core players, and with a dominant year from Giannis, I would expect them anywhere between the #2 and #4 spots in the east. Father Time is the best player in the NBA, so only time will tell how good of a Dame, Lopez, and Middleton we see. All three entering their mid-thirties. I can see this team making some mid-season moves to help bolster their roster that has lost Beasley, and culture creator Patrick Beverly .
Middle of The Pack - Can they break through?
Indiana Pacers : This is a tough one. Indiana had a sensational run last year making it to the ECF through the gauntlet that is NY. Haliburton, Siakim, and company put on exhilarating performances each game. Their high powered offense is extremely hard to stop with how fast their pace of play is. Although I think Indy can make another run, I do not think they are there YET, unless they make a couple additions. There was also a number of variables that took place that worked in their favor for the run. Embiid was hurt, which affected the outcome of the NY series, Brunson went down late. I think their run was a byproduct of “Style VS Style”. Extremely different styles of play going head to head, and then getting swept in the ECF. I think they are missing a third star to compliment Haliburton and Siakim for them to make as much noise this year due to some Eastern Conference additions. I can see a #4 seed in the making, but in my eyes there is a drop off after the top 3 seeds.
Phoenix Suns : Does this star studded team perform any differently from last year? I don’t think so. On paper, this is a generational roster, but on the court? It doesn’t work like that. I do think it is possible for them to improve their record from last year, and potentially have a better playoff run if given the matchup, but that is going to require a couple moves to fill out their roster. They have the stars, but I don’t think they have a well enough supporting cast to compliment the stars’ strengths. They have had a couple of decent additions, but the one that sticks out the most is Tyus Jones. Phoenix desperately needed a true PG to facilitate things. It’s nice being able to have Booker or KD bring up the ball, but I think they are most efficient when KD and Book are off the ball. Tyus is a great addition to get things started on the offensive end and relieve some pressure for them. I expect Phoenix to make a run, but I don’t see them going any further than last year.
Miami Heat : AS OF NOW, The Miami Heat are a middle of the pack franchise during the regular season. Jimmy has been playing less and less games each year, hopefully we can see a healthy and consistent Jimmy this year. But non the less, with all three of the top teams in Boston, Philly, and NY bolstering their rosters, I think this sets back Miami even more. Now, I highly expect Miami to make a major roster change at some point. They are usually aggressive and not afraid to make big moves if needed, and I definitely think it is needed to keep up with the top of the East.
Sacramento Kings : Sac town as been consistently above average the last couple seasons, and I think they are just below the cusp of being a “top tier” team. I think the addition of DeMar, and the subtraction of Harrison Barnes slightly increases their W/L column, but not by much. I expect Fox to take another step forward and Sabonis to be consistent all season long. I think this team can put up a fight in the playoffs, but ultimately I do not think they are well enough off for a WCF appearance.
Cleveland Cavaliers : Not much has happened in CLE this offseason in terms of roster additions, and with a lot of improvement amongst other teams, I don’t expect the Cavs to have any better of a year than last season. Mitchell will be phenomenal, but I just do not see them miraculously making any more noise. I think their only chance is to get someone off of the buyout market once another team hits the reset button, or to try and find some moves. Mobley has been extended with a pay raise, so I think we can potentially see something revolving around Jarrett Allen at some point to bring some more firepower on offense. Cleveland was very inconsistent offensively during their series with the Magic so I think they can use some more scorers to surround Mitchell and Co.
Memphis Grizzlies : The Return of the Sith. Ja Morant makes his return to the hardwood this year. Ja also has a new big man in Zach Edey. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I think if Ja stays healthy, Memphis can make a run, but the league has transitioned since Ja was last in the playoffs. A lot of the top teams on both sides have improved with new additions, but the last time Ja was healthy, Memphis was of some of the top teams in the league. Do they have enough firepower? I think we need to wait and see how much value the new big man brings to the team.
Orlando Magic: The Orlando Magic showed a lot of improvements last year. Paulo is taking form and established himself as one of the best young players in the league. I expect him to take another step forward in his development. The biggest thing for the Magic is adding some more shooters. I believe adding KCP this offseason fits perfectly for the Magic. I can see them in a better position than last year. Another good run this year would establish Orlando as a suitable destination for next summers free agency. I can see a #5-#7 seed for this young Magic squad.
NOLA Pelicans : Pelicans have some potential to be good this year, but I think there is something on the horizon involving Brandon Ingram. They’ve gained Dejounte Murray who could be a big piece, but the question at hand is about the fit? How will he pair along side CJ. How will Zion be this year? There are a lot of questions surrounding this franchise and I think with all of the unknown, the Pelicans are suited for a play-in spot at this moment. Although, this is subject to change if they can land a solid return package for Ingram and whoever else they package. I don’t think losing Naji and Larry Nance Jr for Dejounte Murray will play out in their favor.
Golden State Warriors : I think GSW, LAL, and LAC are all in the same boat with being within the #5-#8 range. They all have veteran stars, but have also all lost some pieces. For GSW, you can never count out Steph, but with the loss of a splash brother, expect their identity to change. I think GSW has some promising young players that can eventually make a difference, I just don’t think that those young guys have enough value to contribute to a successful run in the bay. GSW is probably in the best position in terms of assets to make a trade. Guys like Moody, Kuminga, Wiggins, or even Podziemski may be on the move at some point. I’d expect them to try and capitalize on however many years Curry has left.
LA Clippers : I don’t see much happening in LA this year besides roster moves. The Clips lost two major players in Paul George and Russell Westbrook, and gained KPJ who I think has a huge asterisk next to him. Kawhi hasn’t been consistently healthy, which leaves James Harden to be the soul driver of this team. Harden is now 35, so I am confident that he can lead the Clips to a good run. I wouldn’t be surprised if Harden requests a trade, wanting to capitalize his talents on a contender with the years he has left in the tank. Clips may look to hit the reset button over the next couple years. I think they fall to a play in tournament seed.
LA Lakers : I’m not to sure what to think of the situation for the Lakers. They didn’t have too much in addition besides the draft picks in Knecht and Bronny Jr. They have a new head coach in JJ Reddick, who many are saying is not a good fit due to the “friendship” with LeBron, and his age. I just don’t see them in any better of a position from last year unless roster moves are on the way. I can see them dealing some of their young prospects in order to try and capitalize with what is left for LeBron. Or they can even send LeBron to somewhere of his choosing to enjoy his last couple seasons, if this is not his last. I see them between #7-9 in the west.
San Antonio : Headed in the right direction, but not there yet. I think Wemby is going to be a generational star, and is the ROY. The additions of Harrison Barnes and Chris Paul are great for the growth of this young core, but it is not enough to get them into a solid seeding in the west. I do think they are headed for a play-in spot. I think what they do this year is strictly to set them up for years to come. Establishing themselves as a FA destination with potential for a big name FA to come join the Spurs next summer. I mean, who wouldn’t want to play alongside Wemby?
Utah Jazz - Utah has a solid young core of Lauri, Sexton, Collins, Clarkson, and has had some nice additions of veteran Patty Mills, Svi Mykhailiuk, and Drew Eubanks. I think best case scenario, Utah is a seed or two above the play-in seeding, but the west has a lot of competitive teams. I could also see a blockbuster move around this franchise with a trio of young studs with trade value and a couple other teams on the brink of a reset that have stars under contract like the Clippers, Warriors, Pelicans, etc. With a solid trade, the Utah Jazz can immediately bolster their lineup and climb into the upper half of the West.
Pretenders - Full of Question Marks
Toronto Raptors - Play in at best. There isn’t much to say here besides they are a franchise looking to compete, and wait for a chance to make a roster move. Scottie Barnes is a foundational piece that I believe they are looking to build around.
Brooklyn Nets - Lot’s of question marks here. Will Ben Simmons ever return to form? Who is their “guy”? They brought in some veterans such as Bojan, and Shake Milton, but I don’t see those two guys filling out their roster after losing Bridges. They are more set for the future with the assets they got from NY, so I definitely see them trying to make a splash in the trade market at some point. I do not see this team making the play-in tournament unless a move is made.
Atlanta Hawks - Who knows what the deal is in Atlanta. Trae Young seems to be stuck in the mud for a franchise trending downward. I’m not exactly sure what their vision is. Whether a rebuild or trade is coming, or whether or not they are trying to contend which given their current roster, I don’t think is an option. At best, this is a team fighting for a play-in spot.
Chicago Bulls - I think it’s clear that Chicago officially kicked off their rebuilding campaign in result of the trade that sent Caruso to OKC for Giddey. The only sense this makes is that they are looking to create space and opportunity to rebuild. I expect them to find a move for Lavine whether it is a trade or buyout, but given his injury history, I don’t think there’s a good enough market for the Bulls to get anything game changing in return. Who knows what is going to come of Lonzo. We see he is gearing up for play, but will he ever be back to normal with the severity of his surgeries? Tank season on the way?
Detroit Pistons - Detroit is still the Detroit of recent years, but they’ve taken steps in the right direction. I believe brining in former 76ers Paul Reed and Tobias Harris are good steps for their program. Harris is a vet who’s competed on high level teams with above average game play, so I think he is a good fit in mentoring the young talent and providing some juice to the lineup. Paul Reed will have his time to play major minutes and make something of his career. Although detroit is below a play-in expectation, they are slowly starting to trend in the right direction. I do not think they will have the worst record this year.
Charlotte Hornets - Charlotte has not made any game changing moves. They brought in a veteran in Taj Gibson, and resigned Bridges and Curry. Will Lamelo stay healthy? Even with a healthy Lamelo, Charlotte still has a ton of gaps to fill. They need star power, role players, shooting, and everything in between. I really don’t see any direction up or down with this team. They are coasting.
Washington Wizards - Potential bust in the making? Now, it is way to early to jump to conclusions, but the discourse online is that Sarr is a bust. He hasn’t play good in any summer league contests, and the Wizards do not really have a well enough roster to make any sort of noise. I think this is a long term rebuild where we will probably see Washington back in the high lottery picks next year. Malcom Brogdon was brought in, but I see a buyout on the horizon.
Portland TrailBlazers - Portland is coasting. No major additions. They’ve swapped Brogdon for Graham at the guard spot. Drafted a center with their lottery pick who I think can eventually make a solid impact, but where does that leave them with Ayton? I think with this organization we may see a big move at some point into the season. We always seem to see Jerami Grant’s name floating around in the trade market, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he is finally moved this year in hopes to boost this slight rebuild in the post Dame-Time era. They need a guy, and that guy is not Ayton.
Houston Rockets - Houston has a bright future ahead. I am looking forward to watching Reed Sheppard play this year. I think he has a huge upside with loads of potential. The Rockets are just not in that bracket to be competitive this year. They are still a couple pieces out from getting to the play-in spots.